The game will tip off at Purdue's Mackey Arena at 8 p.m. ET. According to SportsLine consensus, the Boilermakers are a 17-point favorite against Purdue, with an over/under of 148.5 points. You should check out SportsLine's model's NCAA Basketball predictions before making any Purdue vs. Indiana selections.
Ten thousand simulations of each Division I college basketball game are run by the model. With a 124-82 record on all top-rated college basketball selections going back to the previous season, it leads into Week 14 of the 2023–24 campaign and has returned more than $2,000 for $100 players. This season, it has also gotten off to a scorching 20-9 start with top-rated spread picks. Big returns have been seen by those that follow.
Purdue vs. Indiana spread: Purdue -17
Purdue vs. Indiana over/under: 148.5 points
Purdue vs. Indiana money line: Purdue: -2247, Indiana: +1038
IND: Indiana is 7-4-1 ATS against the Big Ten this season
PUR: Purdue is 4-2 ATS over its last six games
Purdue vs. Indiana picks: See picks here
Contain Zach Edey
In the opening game, Purdue senior center Zach Edey controlled the paint against Indiana. The 7-foot-4 center outperformed Indiana's best player, its frontcourt, with 33 points and 14 rebounds on his own.
Eleven of Edey's twelve shots at the free throw line were made, making him the current undisputed National Player of the Year. He forced two early fouls out of Indiana sophomore center Kel'el Ware and fouled out junior big Payton Sparks and sixth-year senior guard Xavier Johnson.
To stop Edey, Indiana might need to use a combination of skill, discipline, and luck. The group must play shrewdly enough to avoid fouling important players while still playing physically strong enough to stop Edey.
Indiana head coach Mike Woodson stated on Zoom on Thursday morning, "You've got to bang some with him, because if you don't, you get embarrassed." "All we need to do is approach the game with the mentality that, hey, maybe we can avoid getting into foul trouble, bang around a little, and play aggressively like they do and see what happens."
Due to an uncomfortable lower-body injury he sustained in the closing seconds of Indiana's 76-73 victory over Ohio State on Tuesday night, Ware's availability for Saturday has been called into question. According to Woodson, Ware received therapy on Wednesday and didn't practice. The presence of the 7-footer will be crucial in slowing down Edey.
Make the right defensive rotations
Fletcher Loyer, a sophomore guard for the Boilermakers, scorched the Hoosiers with four 3-pointers, several of which came on wide-open looks. Lance Jones, a fifth-year senior guard, shot 3-for-7 from outside the arc.
Woodson described Jones as a player who "gets the ball and makes plays off the bounce." "Very good three-point shooter." You know, rough kid. Fantastic pickup for them.
Braden Smith, a sophomore guard for Purdue, was a maestro to the Boilermakers' formidable orchestra, dicing the Hoosiers with nine assists despite having a poor shooting night. Due to Indiana's inadequate closeouts, Smith was able to drive to the hoop and identify open shooters.
Indiana's play is still patchy, particularly when it comes to defense. However, the Hoosiers have demonstrated the ability to lock opponents down and limit the damage from the 3-point line when things are going well and they are playing well and making the appropriate rotations.
In the first meeting, the Hoosiers shot 8 for 24 compared to the Boilermakers' 7 for 19, making more 3-pointers than Purdue. To keep the game close, they might need to make more of them. Indiana's game plan will heavily rely on freshman forward Mackenzie Mgbako, who is the team's main shooting threat.
Make Purdue’s role players win the game
It will be crucial to slow Edey down as much as possible, but no matter what happens, he should still put up a solid stat line. Edey averaged 29.5 points and 17 rebounds throughout Indiana's season-long series sweep over Purdue, which was ridiculous given the Boilermakers' inability to win any of the games.
The Hoosiers' ability to neutralize Edey's supporting cast was a major factor in their victories in both games, and it will be essential to forcing a fight in West Lafayette on Saturday. Last season, Loyer was the only Boilermaker to score in double figures in both games; however, this season, he finished with 19 points, Jones scoring 17 more, and Smith's playmaking contributed another 17.
"They have improved surrounding pieces around Edey, so when you play them, there's no night off for any position," Woodson remarked.
69 of Purdue's 87 points in January came from the three of Edey, Loyer, and Jones. Indiana may have hope if the Boilermakers are unable to score as many points from just one of them.
Woodson understands that an almost faultless performance is necessary for the Hoosiers to pull off an upset. It's all about finishing the game and getting lucky for him.
"I hope you can win, but you have to go out there and commit for forty minutes, do everything right, and have a little luck on your side," he remarked. "
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